Diminishing Token Returns

Monday, October 23, 2017

Last week we showed a simple table in our newsletter that showed the relative performance of ICO-issued tokens versus Bitcoin and Ethereum (conclusion: ~30% of tokens have returned more than both BTC and ETH since the respective ICO dates). We received many requests for a more granular take on this data, so we did a full analysis of overall buy-and-hold returns (i.e. buy $1 of tokens at time of ICO and hold until now) for all tokens in our database and compared them with simultaneously timed investments in ETH and BTC.

The table below shows that – on average – ICO tokens have outperformed both ETH and BTC (14x return vs 12x and 4x). Looking at the returns sorted by the ICO date, we see that returns for all cryptocurrencies (tokens, ETH, BTC) are much higher for the Pre-2017 and Q1 2017 periods than for Q2 2017 onwards. This isn’t surprising given that the major bull market rally took place after Q1.

What does deserve a closer look is how the relative outperformance has evolved during 2017. On average, tokens outperformed the two base cryptocurrencies for the first 3 quarters of the year. And – although time and data are very sparse – this outperformance trend has come to a slight halt right now. The 4 ICOs that took place in October and whose tokens are being traded, have underperformed both ETH and BTC. Moreover, BTC is outperforming both tokens and ETH for the first time. While it’s too early to proclaim that “winter is here” the TokenData team will keep you up to date in the coming weeks as this unfolds.

Weekly Updates

  • NEW on TokenData.io: 
     
    • Interview with Amentum – When we heard about a new crypto fund with an explicit mission statement of being “crypto-first”, we wanted to hear more… Read our Q&A with the Amendum team about its founding, their crypto fund working group and diversity in the blockchain space.
       
    • My Tokens (BETA) – You can now create lists of token sales and token returns by creating an account on our website. We’re iterating quickly and adding new features in the coming weeks. Please send us your feedback!
       
    • Token Jobs (tokenjobs.io) – We’ve launched a free and crowdsourced job posting board focused on crypto projects. Whether you’re a dev looking to move into the space, or you’re a project looking to attract the best talent after completing an ICO – look no further!
       
  • Weekly Token Data:
    • Nr of completed ICO’s (wk/mo/ytd): 24 / 53 / 306
    • USD Raised (wk/mo/ytd): $130M / $372M / $3.1B
    • Calendar: 25ICOs this week
    • Crypto Celebrity of the Week: Scott Disick (tip: if you’ve never heard of him, keep it that way!)

Token Sale (ICO) Calendar

Mon (10/23)

Tues (10/24)

Wed (10/25)

Thu (10/26)

Fri (10/27)

Sat (10/28)

Sun (10/29)